This, from Geoff Styles at Energy Outlook (nice to meet you in person yesterday, Geoff!), is an incredibly important and naively overlooked observation:
The problem is that the industry dynamic behind this trend didn't much resemble the pristine image that the term "experience curve" evokes, of diligent engineers relentlessly focused on continuous improvement. Without diminishing the contribution of a lot of smart people, a key driver was the tough competition for market share between silicon-based PV, which had to overcome a major bottleneck in the supply of its primary raw material, polysilicon--the price for which spiked and subsequently collapsed--and cheaper but less efficient thin-film PV technologies relying on entirely different chemistries such as cadmium telluride and copper, indium, gallium and selenium.
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Alex,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the HT and the tweets. Great to meet you, too. Go Bears!